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钱途 20060518 作者:liming

Mini-Crash

小型崩盘

2006-05-18 08:43:21


Good Morning. This is the Daily Market Outlook (the analysis of financial markets) for Thursday May 18, 2006.

早晨好﹗这是星期四﹐2006年5月18日的每日市场趋势预警(针对金融市场的分析)。


Per earlier warning “in an intermediate-term time frame, market seems vulnerable to downside risk” (see Yellow Flag (P.II) – April 17).  The NASDAQ Composite had dropped more than 6% in five consecutive sessions.

Moreover, as mentioned yesterday, “market had dropped to level, where one can expect a dramatic decline if prices fail to rebound from here  In other words, you can expect a “mini-crash” like scenario once a short-term oversold is becoming an intermediate-term oversold” (see “More Oversold” – May 17).

正如我早先预警﹐从中期走势来分析﹐市场对下降风险似乎仍是脆弱[参见4月17日发表的美股趋势预警“关注Q1财报(2)/黄旗(2)”]。那斯达克综合指数最近连跌了五天﹐跌幅超过6%﹐并且恰如我在星期三开盘前的预警﹐“市场现在是下跌到了一个关键的水平﹐如果未能从这水平反弹的话﹐你可能要防备一个更加勐烈的下跌。换句话说﹐一旦超卖再超卖﹐一旦短期超卖演变成为中期超卖﹐你可能要防备类似‘小型崩盘’的情景出现”[参见5月17日发表的美股趋势预警“超卖再超卖”]。

And as expected, market experienced a “min-crash” like Wednesday with the Dow Jones industrials plummeted 214.28 points to close at 11,205.61 – its biggest single-session loss in three years.  The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 21.76, or 1.68% to 1,270.32 -- its lowest close since finishing at 1,262.86 on Feb. 13.   The NASDAQ fell 33.33 or 1.5% to 2,195.80, showing a loss for the first time in 2006.

依照预计﹐星期三开盘果然体验了“小型崩盘”的惨况﹐市场暴跌收盘。道琼工业平均指数暴跌了214.28点﹐收盘在11,205.61点﹐这是它在三年来的最大的单日下跌损失。标普500指数下跌了21.76点或1.68%﹐收盘在1,270.32点﹐这是它在2月13日创下1,262.86点之外的最低收盘。那斯达克综合指数下跌了33.33点或1.5%﹐收盘在2,195.80点﹐这是它第一次收盘显示2006年的下跌损失。

Now that market has becoming more and more oversold, what do you do?  Let’s take a look at market breadth:

 既然目前市场是变得越来越“超卖再超卖”﹐投资者如何操作更好呢﹖我们现在看一看市场广度走势﹕

The “NYSE 5-Day Advance/Decline Oscillator” chart below addresses a short-to-intermediate-term time frame.

如下的“纽约股票交易所5天来上昇与下跌振盪指示器”图显示中~短期走势。

 

<a href=../ep/?%25C7%25AE%25CD%25BE--1.htm>钱途</a> <wbr>20060518

As you can see, the SP-500 index broke down below the October ’05 trendline support as the advance/decline oscillator is reaching deeply into an oversold zone on increase volume.  This is a very bearish development, which often precede a change in primary trend’s direction.

如同投资者所能能看到﹐随上昇与下跌振盪指示器以增大的交易量深深地陷入到超卖区域﹐标普500指数打破其2005年10月以来的趋势线支撑之下。这是非常走跌的趋势发展﹐这往往可能是标志一个主要趋势改变的前奏。

The “NASDAQ New High/New Low Ratio” chart below addresses a short-to-intermediate-term time frame.  

如下的"那斯达克新高与新低之比率"图显示中~短期走势。

<a href=../ep/?%25C7%25AE%25CD%25BE--1.htm>钱途</a> <wbr>20060518

The NASDAQ had, finally, broken down below the October ’05 trendline support after a series of bearish breadth developments since early ’06.  

在从2006年早期以来的一系列的走跌的广度发展以后﹐那斯达克终于打破其2005年10月以来的趋势线支撑之下。

Similarly, the “NYSE New High/New Low Ratio” chart below also shared the same characteristics as those of the NASDAQ.

相类似的是﹐"纽约股票交易所新高与新低之比率” 图同样显示出与那斯达克相同的特征。


<a href=../ep/?%25C7%25AE%25CD%25BE--1.htm>钱途</a> <wbr>20060518


If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you might have, already, recall that I’ve talk about the “bearish breadth development” almost every week in the past couple of months.  And again, “breadth” rarely constitutes a buy or sell signal by itself but when it does, it’s a very powerful signal.  I think any serious traders should take the bullish and, especially, negative breadth development seriously because, from my experience, your ignorance is going to cost you some “serious” money.

如果你是这个专栏的固定读者﹐那么﹐或许你还可能回想起我在过去的几个月里几乎每星期都在提醒注意这个看跌的广度发展。不过要注意﹐这“广度”指标如单独使用则几乎很少构成买入或卖出的信号﹐但如果一旦它确实是﹐则这是一个非常强而有力的信号。我认为所有认真的交易者都应该认真地对待看涨﹐特别是看跌的广度发展﹐因为﹐从我的经验来判断﹐投资者的任何忽视或熟视无睹将导致破财﹐导致投资者的一些“严重” 投资损失。

Bottom line: needless to say, market is “extremely” oversold The good news is “nothing falls forever”.  And I, therefore, think you might able to see a rebound in the upcoming days; though I need more evidence (which we don’t have at the moment) is needed in order to measure the magnitude of the bounce.  An “intermediate-term downtrend” remains intact until proven otherwise.

底线﹕无庸赘述﹐市场是短期“极端”超卖﹐所以好消息是“没有什么会永远下跌”。因此我认为在即将来临的交易日投资者可能将看一个反弹﹐虽然我需要更多(我们暂时没有)的证据来分析反弹的能量会有多巨大。除非证明相反﹐否则﹐“中期下跌趋势”依然是保持完整。

Given the current “breadth” development, “sell into rally” might be the smartest strategy for the time being. 

根据当前的"广度"发展趋势状况﹐如果没有大的改善﹐"逢高减持"也许暂时是最聪明的策略。



 

 

Happy trading everyone!